How To Make Sports Bets
2021年4月19日Register here: http://gg.gg/p35zm
*Make Bets Online For Sports
*How To Make Sports Bets
If you think that picking who you think is going to win a game, match, or afight is the right way to make sports bets, you’re in for a treat today. Why?Because that couldn’t be further from correct. While this is the way that mostof the betting public choose their bets, it’s a recipe for a slowly leakingbankroll and no profits. In this guide, we’re going to walk you through theright way to make your betting selections. When you get done here today, youwill be far more equipped and educated on what it is going to take to be asuccessful and winning sports bettor.What Does the “Right Way” Mean?
HOW TO BET ON SPORTS. A guide for first-time players who are totally new to the world of online sports betting. Learn everything you need to know to have the best chance to cash out from your. Learn everything you need to get started placing bets; the key terms and details, access tools to help you make informed bets, and then get started on Yahoo Sportsbook! Bettors pick the result of.
Before we start giving you the tips and breaking things down, we need to makesure we are all on the same page on what we’re attempting to accomplish. Whatdoes “the right way” mean when we’re talking about picking betting selections?Well, we’re referring to picking selections to win. Anyone can look at a gameand make a random selection and a bet. What we’re talking about is making picksthat give you a better chance of walking away a long-term winner.
If all you care about is having fun, then feel free to bet however you’dlike. We’re attempting to address those bettors who are serious about theirselections or are looking to become more serious with their approach. Becoming awinning sports bettor is not easy. We’re not going to sugar coat that for you.It requires a well thought out intelligent strategy and plan for making the bestselections possible.
So, if you’re just someone who wants to make some bets for kicks and giggles,you can probably disregard this guide. But, if you’re looking to turn a profitand take your betting to the next level, buckle up and dial in because we’regoing to help you a lot today.Look for Value, Not Winners
Wait, What?! You probably think we’re crazy right about now. Did we just tellyou that you shouldn’t be trying to pick winners when you’re making your bettingselection? Yes…yes, we did. The good news for you is that we’re going to fullyexplain what we’re talking about and why it’s crucial to the success of yoursports betting career.
The best way to start explaining this concept is by proving a fact. You canhave a winning sports betting record (meaning more wins than losses), be bettingthe exact same amount with every bet, and still be losing money. Additionally,you can have a losing sports betting record (more incorrect picks than correct),be betting the same amount with every bet, and be making money. If you’reconfused, that’s okay. Let’s walk through this and then talk about how to applyit to your betting selections.
The key here is that not all bets pay the same. If you’re betting bigfavorites, you’re probably going to win a lot of your bets, but you might not bemaking money. On the flip side, if you’re betting a bunch of underdogs, you’regoing to win less often, but you’re going to get paid out a lot more when youare correct.
If you bet four bets that are all (-500) favorites for $100 each and you winthree out of four, here’s what your profit will look like.Bet NumberBet AmountPayout OddsResultProfitBet 1$100(-500)Win$20Bet 2$100(-500)Win$20Bet 3$100(-500)Win$20Bet 4$100(-500)Lose(-$100)
In this scenario, you are 3-1 on your picks, but you lost $40. You arewinning 75% of your bets, but you’re losing money. What you should be trackingto gauge your success is your Return on Investment and not your win/loss record.The amount you’re profiting or losing is much more important than your recordeven though that seems to be what people tend to share.
Why is this important when making your selection? Well, hopefully, it’s clearthat your goal when making picks should not be picking winners. Anybody can comeout and fire on huge favorites to pad a nice looking win/loss record. It takesan expert to come out and make bets that win you money. This is called makingbets for value. Your entire goal of sports betting should be trying to find betsthat have value.
Now, this does not mean you shouldn’t bet favorites or that you can’t makemoney by only betting favorites. Here’s what we mean. This is the important partso get your papers and pencils ready for this knowledge bomb coming your way.You need to be looking for bets that are projected to pay out at a higher ratethan they should be.
Technically, the sportsbook tries to set the betting lines at exactly whatthey think it should be (minus a few percentage points for the house rake sothey can make money). They will move this line based on how people are bettingto try to encourage or discourage bets onto different sides of a game. Thismeans that the line will frequently move to accommodate the goals of thesportsbook.
There can only be one correct line, though. That line would be what actuallyhappens in the game. If you had the ability to see the future, you could seewhat the payout line or point spread should be, and you could bet if the line orspread were off in your favor. If you’re a bit confused, that’s okay. Let’s lookat an example to make things a clearer for you. In this example, we’re going toassume there is no house rake to make things simpler.
Let’s say that the Denver Dogaroos are playing the Memphis Fuzzygems. No,these are not real teams, but they’re our made-up football teams for today’sexample. Let’s say that the Dogaroos are a phenomenal team and you think that ifthey played the Fuzzygems 10 times, they would win 8 out of those 10 games.Basically, you think they will win 80% of the games they play together.
The moneyline on the Dogaroos is currently (-400). So we’re all on the samepage, a moneyline bet is a wager that the team will win the game. The odds of(-400) mean that if you were to wager $100 on the Dogaroos, you would return aprofit of $25. Is this a great bet to make or not?Implied Probabilities
The key to understanding whether or not this is a great bet selection to makeis implied probabilities. The implied probability is the probability (chance ofsomething happening) that another number implies. So, (-400) does not just tellyou how much you get paid for a correct bet on the Dogaroos, but it also tellsyou the likelihood of the Dogaroos winning based on that number.
With some basic math conversions, we can turn any moneyline into a percentageprobability that something will happen. Since no one has time to do math,here’s animplied probability converter that we’ve created for you. We highlyrecommend bookmarking this because it’s going to become the cornerstone of yoursports betting career.
When you put (-400) in as the American odds, and you click convert, it tellsyou that the implied probability of the Dogaroos winning based on this bettingline is 80%. Based on your prediction (what we will call the predictedprobability), you also thought the Dogaroos had an 80% chance of winning thegame. Therefore, this bet would be paying out exactly as you think that itshould pay based on the likelihood of the Dogaroos winning the game.So, should you make this bet? Well, in reality, it doesn’t matter. If you arecorrect in your prediction, you’ll effectively make $0 in the long run with thisbet. It pays out exactly as it should so there is no value.
Here’s what you’re looking for. You’re looking for bets where the impliedprobability is LESS than what you actually think is going to happen (yourpredicted probability). Remember, the sportsbook pays you out based on thelikelihood of something happening. The less likely it is to happen, the moremoney they are going to pay you out. The more likely it is to happen, the lessmoney they are going to pay you out when you’re correct.
So, let’s say the sportsbook thinks the Dogaroos are not that good atfootball and that they only have a 60% chance of winning the game. If you put60% into the converter in the implied probability slot and click convert, yousee that the American odds are about (-150). If you were to bet $100 at (-150),you would get a profit back of $66.67.
This is WAY more than you think we’re supposed to get. You predict that thelikelihood of a win is 80% which should pay out a profit of $25. You think thata $25 profit is fair. If the sportsbook is paying you out $66.67 when you’reright, you are getting WAY overpaid. That is value.
When you find good value like this, you’ve found a great bet. If yourpredictive probability (how likely you think they are to win) is correct and thesportsbook is paying you better than they should be, you’ve found value, andyou’re on your way to making some money.Underdog Picks
It’s important to note that you can find value in underdog picks as well.Should you bet these picks even if you don’t think the underdog is going to win?In most cases, you should be betting these. Remember, sports betting is notabout winning the next bet. It’s about winning money in the long run. The morebets that you make that have value, the more you’re going to make in the longrun.
The thing to remember when betting underdog bets for value is that it maytake more games and bets for you to realize your profit.Example
Let’s say the Dogaroos and the Fuzzygems are playing again. TheFuzzygems are the underdogs again at (+400). You think that the Fuzzygems have a40% chance of winning the game. Is there value in this bet and should you makeit?
Well, first you need to convert the moneyline odds of (+400) into an impliedprobability. If the implied probability is lower than your predicted probability(40%), then there is value in the bet. You put (+400) into the converter, andyou see that the implied probability is 20%. This means that you’d be gettingpaid out way more than the sportsbook should be paying you.
If you’re curious as to what you think the odds should be based on what wethink the likelihood of them winning is, you can figure that out. You put 40%into the implied probability converter and see that you think the odds should be+150. This means that if you were to bet $100, you think you should be getting$150 in profit while the sportsbook is willing to pay out $400 in profit. Thereis a lot of value here.
But…you still think that the Fuzzygems are going to lose the game. When yousay they have a 40% chance to win, you’re saying that you think they’re going tolose more often than they win. So, should you make this bet?
First, let’s look at how things would work if you made 10 bets and thesportsbook was right that they were only 20% likely to win the game.Bet NumberBet AmountPayout OddsResultProfitBet 1$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 2$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 3$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 4$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 5$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 6$100+400Win+$400Bet 7$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 8$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 9$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 10$100+400Win+$400
Your total profit would be $0. You would have lost 8 of 10 bets, but becauseyou were getting paid the correct amount it balances out. Obviously, you can’tbet the same game 10 times, but the idea is that if you’re always making betsthat pay out the correct amount you will always break even.
Let’s take a look at this same scenario except let’s say that your predictionthat the Fuzzygems have a 40% chance of winning the game is correct. This meansthat they should win 4 out of every 10 times they play. Remember, the sportsbookis still paying you out on their prediction of only a 20% likelihood of winning.Bet NumberBet AmountPayout OddsResultProfitBet 1$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 2$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 3$100+400Win+$400Bet 4$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 5$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 6$100+400Win+$400Bet 7$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 8$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 9$100+400Win+$400Bet 10$100+400Win+$400
In this scenario, you would be turning a profit of $1000! You were betting ongames you expected to lose, but because there was value you were able to turn aprofit in the long run.How to Utilize This in Making Your Picks
By now, you are hopefully seeing that the key to being a winning sportsbettor is finding value whether that is with favorites or underdogs. If youcontinually make value picks instead of just picking who you think will win thegame, you’re going to start turning a nice profit. The more value you find, themore money you’re going to make.
So, what are the actionable steps you can take to utilize this information tomake better picks? It’s actually quite simple. First, you need to figure out thepercentage chance you think a bet has of winning. This is easier said than done,but we will cover this in a later section. Once you figure out what thelikelihood is of a bet winning, you need to convert that percentage into an oddsnumber. Then, start looking at different sportsbooks and see what they arepaying for that bet. If they are paying better than what you think they should,you should make that bet.Example
Let’s say that our favorite team, the Dogaroos, are playingagainst the Seattle Stinkpots. You work your predictive strategy (which we willcover in the next section), and you figure out that you think the Dogaroos havea 35% chance to win against the Stinkpots. You put that into the converter andyou see that the moneyline odds should be +185. If you find any sportsbook thatis paying better than +185, you should make that bet because it has value.Example
If you go to Sportsbook #1 and see they are paying out that betat +210, you should bet. Keep in mind that there won’t always be hugediscrepancies in the payouts so you may have to go for thinner value sometimes.If you can only find something like +195, you still may want to take that bet.
Always be looking for value and not winners. The key to winning at sportsbetting in the long run, is finding value and taking advantage of it.An Exception
There are some instances where there may be value in a pick that you won’twant to bet on. The further that the payout odds get from zero, the bigger thevalue you’ll need to be looking for. For example, the difference between +150and +200 is 50. This would be a pretty big value find in our opinion. Thedifferent between +1000 and +1050 is also 50, but this would not really be ahuge value find. The bet is so unlikely to happen that the risk is most likelynot worth the reward. In theory, yes, you could still make this bet, but it’sgoing to take you so many instances to overcome the variance that it’s probablynot worth it.
The same goes for favorites. (-200) has much more value than (-230). However,(-500) and (-530) are only 30 apart, but are not that great of a value find.While you could still make this bet, your reward might not be big enough for therisk associated. Always make sure to ask yourself if there is enough value foryou to be taking the risk you are. Small discrepancies closer to zero are muchmore worth it than those further away from zero.An Additional Note About Point Spread and Totals Bets
As you may have noticed, we’ve mainly been discussing moneyline bets andhaven’t really touched on finding value with bets that don’t usually havevarying payouts but instead have varying point spreads. When looking for valuehere, you have two ways of approaching the situation – the easy way and the hardway.
The hard way would be figuring out your predicted win percentage, convertingit into a moneyline, and then converting that into a spread. There are a fewcalculators out there to help you with this, but they are less than reliable.
The easy approach here is instead of figuring out the percentage chance youthink a team will win by, figure out how many points you think they’re going towin by. It’s the same process except you are coming out with a different number.If the spread offered is better than what you think it should be, there isvalue.Build a Predictive Strategy
Successful sports betting is not about throwing crud against the wall andseeing what sticks. It’s also not about sitting around staring at a blank wallor a page of lines and looking to see what jumps out at you. Successful sportsbetting is much more about using a well-formulated and carefully craftedpredictive strategy to find the bets that you should and should not be making.
In the above section, we talked about finding value by converting yourpredictive probability into a moneyline odds number and comparing that with whatthe sportsbook is offering. If you find a better payout, you take it and laughall the way to the bank. While this sounds simple in theory, the complexitiesand challenges come in figuring out your predictive probability. When you’reright, you’re going to make money. When you’re wrong, you’re going to losemoney.
To make sure we’re all on the same page, let’s talk a little bit more aboutwhat our predictive probability is. This is a number presented as a percentagethat says how likely we think a team is to win a game. It’s a fancy term, butthe premise is simple. If you think a team is going to win 75% of the time theyplay a game, your predictive probability is 75%.
You have two main approaches that you can take to figuring out the predictivepercentage for a team to win a game. There are more approaches, but most of themwill fall into one of these two categories. The first is the “eyeball approach”and the second is the mathematical approach.
The eyeball approach is not really a professional term, but more of a way ofdescribing the strategy of collecting data, analyzing stats and history, andthen coming to your own conclusion. This is what a lot of sports bettors alreadydo but in a milder form. Here’s where we’d like to put a twist on it, though.Most sports bettors look at the game coming up as a one-time game, and theydecide either win or lose. This doesn’t help us if we’re looking for apercentage chance of winning the game.
Instead of looking at the game as a single game, imagine that the two teamsare going to play 100 times. Decide how many times you think one team will winout of those 100 times. That will be your predictive percentage. If you thinkthey’ll probably win 60 times out of 100, your predictive probability is 60%.You can do this with 10 games as well and multiply it by 10. It doesn’t reallymatter which you use. What does matter is that you’re able to get your mindthinking differently.
The second approach is to create a mathematical formula that gives you apercentage based on the stats and factors that you put into it. There is amultitude of different ways to build your formulas, but here is a general ideato get you started. Come up with the criteria that you think is important tofigure out how likely a team is to win. This could be any number of criteria andusually the more, the better.
After you determine the criteria you think are important, you’re going towant to figure out how much weight each of those criteria will carry. Then, youwant to
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*Make Bets Online For Sports
*How To Make Sports Bets
If you think that picking who you think is going to win a game, match, or afight is the right way to make sports bets, you’re in for a treat today. Why?Because that couldn’t be further from correct. While this is the way that mostof the betting public choose their bets, it’s a recipe for a slowly leakingbankroll and no profits. In this guide, we’re going to walk you through theright way to make your betting selections. When you get done here today, youwill be far more equipped and educated on what it is going to take to be asuccessful and winning sports bettor.What Does the “Right Way” Mean?
HOW TO BET ON SPORTS. A guide for first-time players who are totally new to the world of online sports betting. Learn everything you need to know to have the best chance to cash out from your. Learn everything you need to get started placing bets; the key terms and details, access tools to help you make informed bets, and then get started on Yahoo Sportsbook! Bettors pick the result of.
Before we start giving you the tips and breaking things down, we need to makesure we are all on the same page on what we’re attempting to accomplish. Whatdoes “the right way” mean when we’re talking about picking betting selections?Well, we’re referring to picking selections to win. Anyone can look at a gameand make a random selection and a bet. What we’re talking about is making picksthat give you a better chance of walking away a long-term winner.
If all you care about is having fun, then feel free to bet however you’dlike. We’re attempting to address those bettors who are serious about theirselections or are looking to become more serious with their approach. Becoming awinning sports bettor is not easy. We’re not going to sugar coat that for you.It requires a well thought out intelligent strategy and plan for making the bestselections possible.
So, if you’re just someone who wants to make some bets for kicks and giggles,you can probably disregard this guide. But, if you’re looking to turn a profitand take your betting to the next level, buckle up and dial in because we’regoing to help you a lot today.Look for Value, Not Winners
Wait, What?! You probably think we’re crazy right about now. Did we just tellyou that you shouldn’t be trying to pick winners when you’re making your bettingselection? Yes…yes, we did. The good news for you is that we’re going to fullyexplain what we’re talking about and why it’s crucial to the success of yoursports betting career.
The best way to start explaining this concept is by proving a fact. You canhave a winning sports betting record (meaning more wins than losses), be bettingthe exact same amount with every bet, and still be losing money. Additionally,you can have a losing sports betting record (more incorrect picks than correct),be betting the same amount with every bet, and be making money. If you’reconfused, that’s okay. Let’s walk through this and then talk about how to applyit to your betting selections.
The key here is that not all bets pay the same. If you’re betting bigfavorites, you’re probably going to win a lot of your bets, but you might not bemaking money. On the flip side, if you’re betting a bunch of underdogs, you’regoing to win less often, but you’re going to get paid out a lot more when youare correct.
If you bet four bets that are all (-500) favorites for $100 each and you winthree out of four, here’s what your profit will look like.Bet NumberBet AmountPayout OddsResultProfitBet 1$100(-500)Win$20Bet 2$100(-500)Win$20Bet 3$100(-500)Win$20Bet 4$100(-500)Lose(-$100)
In this scenario, you are 3-1 on your picks, but you lost $40. You arewinning 75% of your bets, but you’re losing money. What you should be trackingto gauge your success is your Return on Investment and not your win/loss record.The amount you’re profiting or losing is much more important than your recordeven though that seems to be what people tend to share.
Why is this important when making your selection? Well, hopefully, it’s clearthat your goal when making picks should not be picking winners. Anybody can comeout and fire on huge favorites to pad a nice looking win/loss record. It takesan expert to come out and make bets that win you money. This is called makingbets for value. Your entire goal of sports betting should be trying to find betsthat have value.
Now, this does not mean you shouldn’t bet favorites or that you can’t makemoney by only betting favorites. Here’s what we mean. This is the important partso get your papers and pencils ready for this knowledge bomb coming your way.You need to be looking for bets that are projected to pay out at a higher ratethan they should be.
Technically, the sportsbook tries to set the betting lines at exactly whatthey think it should be (minus a few percentage points for the house rake sothey can make money). They will move this line based on how people are bettingto try to encourage or discourage bets onto different sides of a game. Thismeans that the line will frequently move to accommodate the goals of thesportsbook.
There can only be one correct line, though. That line would be what actuallyhappens in the game. If you had the ability to see the future, you could seewhat the payout line or point spread should be, and you could bet if the line orspread were off in your favor. If you’re a bit confused, that’s okay. Let’s lookat an example to make things a clearer for you. In this example, we’re going toassume there is no house rake to make things simpler.
Let’s say that the Denver Dogaroos are playing the Memphis Fuzzygems. No,these are not real teams, but they’re our made-up football teams for today’sexample. Let’s say that the Dogaroos are a phenomenal team and you think that ifthey played the Fuzzygems 10 times, they would win 8 out of those 10 games.Basically, you think they will win 80% of the games they play together.
The moneyline on the Dogaroos is currently (-400). So we’re all on the samepage, a moneyline bet is a wager that the team will win the game. The odds of(-400) mean that if you were to wager $100 on the Dogaroos, you would return aprofit of $25. Is this a great bet to make or not?Implied Probabilities
The key to understanding whether or not this is a great bet selection to makeis implied probabilities. The implied probability is the probability (chance ofsomething happening) that another number implies. So, (-400) does not just tellyou how much you get paid for a correct bet on the Dogaroos, but it also tellsyou the likelihood of the Dogaroos winning based on that number.
With some basic math conversions, we can turn any moneyline into a percentageprobability that something will happen. Since no one has time to do math,here’s animplied probability converter that we’ve created for you. We highlyrecommend bookmarking this because it’s going to become the cornerstone of yoursports betting career.
When you put (-400) in as the American odds, and you click convert, it tellsyou that the implied probability of the Dogaroos winning based on this bettingline is 80%. Based on your prediction (what we will call the predictedprobability), you also thought the Dogaroos had an 80% chance of winning thegame. Therefore, this bet would be paying out exactly as you think that itshould pay based on the likelihood of the Dogaroos winning the game.So, should you make this bet? Well, in reality, it doesn’t matter. If you arecorrect in your prediction, you’ll effectively make $0 in the long run with thisbet. It pays out exactly as it should so there is no value.
Here’s what you’re looking for. You’re looking for bets where the impliedprobability is LESS than what you actually think is going to happen (yourpredicted probability). Remember, the sportsbook pays you out based on thelikelihood of something happening. The less likely it is to happen, the moremoney they are going to pay you out. The more likely it is to happen, the lessmoney they are going to pay you out when you’re correct.
So, let’s say the sportsbook thinks the Dogaroos are not that good atfootball and that they only have a 60% chance of winning the game. If you put60% into the converter in the implied probability slot and click convert, yousee that the American odds are about (-150). If you were to bet $100 at (-150),you would get a profit back of $66.67.
This is WAY more than you think we’re supposed to get. You predict that thelikelihood of a win is 80% which should pay out a profit of $25. You think thata $25 profit is fair. If the sportsbook is paying you out $66.67 when you’reright, you are getting WAY overpaid. That is value.
When you find good value like this, you’ve found a great bet. If yourpredictive probability (how likely you think they are to win) is correct and thesportsbook is paying you better than they should be, you’ve found value, andyou’re on your way to making some money.Underdog Picks
It’s important to note that you can find value in underdog picks as well.Should you bet these picks even if you don’t think the underdog is going to win?In most cases, you should be betting these. Remember, sports betting is notabout winning the next bet. It’s about winning money in the long run. The morebets that you make that have value, the more you’re going to make in the longrun.
The thing to remember when betting underdog bets for value is that it maytake more games and bets for you to realize your profit.Example
Let’s say the Dogaroos and the Fuzzygems are playing again. TheFuzzygems are the underdogs again at (+400). You think that the Fuzzygems have a40% chance of winning the game. Is there value in this bet and should you makeit?
Well, first you need to convert the moneyline odds of (+400) into an impliedprobability. If the implied probability is lower than your predicted probability(40%), then there is value in the bet. You put (+400) into the converter, andyou see that the implied probability is 20%. This means that you’d be gettingpaid out way more than the sportsbook should be paying you.
If you’re curious as to what you think the odds should be based on what wethink the likelihood of them winning is, you can figure that out. You put 40%into the implied probability converter and see that you think the odds should be+150. This means that if you were to bet $100, you think you should be getting$150 in profit while the sportsbook is willing to pay out $400 in profit. Thereis a lot of value here.
But…you still think that the Fuzzygems are going to lose the game. When yousay they have a 40% chance to win, you’re saying that you think they’re going tolose more often than they win. So, should you make this bet?
First, let’s look at how things would work if you made 10 bets and thesportsbook was right that they were only 20% likely to win the game.Bet NumberBet AmountPayout OddsResultProfitBet 1$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 2$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 3$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 4$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 5$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 6$100+400Win+$400Bet 7$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 8$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 9$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 10$100+400Win+$400
Your total profit would be $0. You would have lost 8 of 10 bets, but becauseyou were getting paid the correct amount it balances out. Obviously, you can’tbet the same game 10 times, but the idea is that if you’re always making betsthat pay out the correct amount you will always break even.
Let’s take a look at this same scenario except let’s say that your predictionthat the Fuzzygems have a 40% chance of winning the game is correct. This meansthat they should win 4 out of every 10 times they play. Remember, the sportsbookis still paying you out on their prediction of only a 20% likelihood of winning.Bet NumberBet AmountPayout OddsResultProfitBet 1$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 2$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 3$100+400Win+$400Bet 4$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 5$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 6$100+400Win+$400Bet 7$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 8$100+400Lose(-$100)Bet 9$100+400Win+$400Bet 10$100+400Win+$400
In this scenario, you would be turning a profit of $1000! You were betting ongames you expected to lose, but because there was value you were able to turn aprofit in the long run.How to Utilize This in Making Your Picks
By now, you are hopefully seeing that the key to being a winning sportsbettor is finding value whether that is with favorites or underdogs. If youcontinually make value picks instead of just picking who you think will win thegame, you’re going to start turning a nice profit. The more value you find, themore money you’re going to make.
So, what are the actionable steps you can take to utilize this information tomake better picks? It’s actually quite simple. First, you need to figure out thepercentage chance you think a bet has of winning. This is easier said than done,but we will cover this in a later section. Once you figure out what thelikelihood is of a bet winning, you need to convert that percentage into an oddsnumber. Then, start looking at different sportsbooks and see what they arepaying for that bet. If they are paying better than what you think they should,you should make that bet.Example
Let’s say that our favorite team, the Dogaroos, are playingagainst the Seattle Stinkpots. You work your predictive strategy (which we willcover in the next section), and you figure out that you think the Dogaroos havea 35% chance to win against the Stinkpots. You put that into the converter andyou see that the moneyline odds should be +185. If you find any sportsbook thatis paying better than +185, you should make that bet because it has value.Example
If you go to Sportsbook #1 and see they are paying out that betat +210, you should bet. Keep in mind that there won’t always be hugediscrepancies in the payouts so you may have to go for thinner value sometimes.If you can only find something like +195, you still may want to take that bet.
Always be looking for value and not winners. The key to winning at sportsbetting in the long run, is finding value and taking advantage of it.An Exception
There are some instances where there may be value in a pick that you won’twant to bet on. The further that the payout odds get from zero, the bigger thevalue you’ll need to be looking for. For example, the difference between +150and +200 is 50. This would be a pretty big value find in our opinion. Thedifferent between +1000 and +1050 is also 50, but this would not really be ahuge value find. The bet is so unlikely to happen that the risk is most likelynot worth the reward. In theory, yes, you could still make this bet, but it’sgoing to take you so many instances to overcome the variance that it’s probablynot worth it.
The same goes for favorites. (-200) has much more value than (-230). However,(-500) and (-530) are only 30 apart, but are not that great of a value find.While you could still make this bet, your reward might not be big enough for therisk associated. Always make sure to ask yourself if there is enough value foryou to be taking the risk you are. Small discrepancies closer to zero are muchmore worth it than those further away from zero.An Additional Note About Point Spread and Totals Bets
As you may have noticed, we’ve mainly been discussing moneyline bets andhaven’t really touched on finding value with bets that don’t usually havevarying payouts but instead have varying point spreads. When looking for valuehere, you have two ways of approaching the situation – the easy way and the hardway.
The hard way would be figuring out your predicted win percentage, convertingit into a moneyline, and then converting that into a spread. There are a fewcalculators out there to help you with this, but they are less than reliable.
The easy approach here is instead of figuring out the percentage chance youthink a team will win by, figure out how many points you think they’re going towin by. It’s the same process except you are coming out with a different number.If the spread offered is better than what you think it should be, there isvalue.Build a Predictive Strategy
Successful sports betting is not about throwing crud against the wall andseeing what sticks. It’s also not about sitting around staring at a blank wallor a page of lines and looking to see what jumps out at you. Successful sportsbetting is much more about using a well-formulated and carefully craftedpredictive strategy to find the bets that you should and should not be making.
In the above section, we talked about finding value by converting yourpredictive probability into a moneyline odds number and comparing that with whatthe sportsbook is offering. If you find a better payout, you take it and laughall the way to the bank. While this sounds simple in theory, the complexitiesand challenges come in figuring out your predictive probability. When you’reright, you’re going to make money. When you’re wrong, you’re going to losemoney.
To make sure we’re all on the same page, let’s talk a little bit more aboutwhat our predictive probability is. This is a number presented as a percentagethat says how likely we think a team is to win a game. It’s a fancy term, butthe premise is simple. If you think a team is going to win 75% of the time theyplay a game, your predictive probability is 75%.
You have two main approaches that you can take to figuring out the predictivepercentage for a team to win a game. There are more approaches, but most of themwill fall into one of these two categories. The first is the “eyeball approach”and the second is the mathematical approach.
The eyeball approach is not really a professional term, but more of a way ofdescribing the strategy of collecting data, analyzing stats and history, andthen coming to your own conclusion. This is what a lot of sports bettors alreadydo but in a milder form. Here’s where we’d like to put a twist on it, though.Most sports bettors look at the game coming up as a one-time game, and theydecide either win or lose. This doesn’t help us if we’re looking for apercentage chance of winning the game.
Instead of looking at the game as a single game, imagine that the two teamsare going to play 100 times. Decide how many times you think one team will winout of those 100 times. That will be your predictive percentage. If you thinkthey’ll probably win 60 times out of 100, your predictive probability is 60%.You can do this with 10 games as well and multiply it by 10. It doesn’t reallymatter which you use. What does matter is that you’re able to get your mindthinking differently.
The second approach is to create a mathematical formula that gives you apercentage based on the stats and factors that you put into it. There is amultitude of different ways to build your formulas, but here is a general ideato get you started. Come up with the criteria that you think is important tofigure out how likely a team is to win. This could be any number of criteria andusually the more, the better.
After you determine the criteria you think are important, you’re going towant to figure out how much weight each of those criteria will carry. Then, youwant to
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